Pair #3964

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-ATOS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 927

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-ATOS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 38691

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:09:59Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 20 overall (could collapse in later rounds), and finishing top 20 overall does not require a top 5 Round 1 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue