Pair #3963

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-ATOS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 927

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-ATOS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4805

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:09:59Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 5 in the overall tournament, and finishing top 5 overall does not require a top 5 Round 1 position. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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