Pair #3962

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-ATOS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 927

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-ATOS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14041

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:09:59Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in the overall tournament does not require finishing top 5 in Round 1, and finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 overall finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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