Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-ATOS
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 952
YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-ATOS
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 38691
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:09:59Z
Reasoning: Event A is about Round 1 top 10; Event B is about overall tournament top 20. A player could be top 10 after Round 1 but fall outside top 20 overall, or finish top 20 overall without being top 10 after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.9700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A