Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-ATOS
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 952
YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-ATOS
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4805
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:09:59Z
Reasoning: Event A is about Round 1 top 10 finish; Event B is about the overall tournament top 5. A player could be top 10 after Round 1 but finish outside top 5 overall, or finish top 5 overall without being top 10 after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.9500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A