Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-ATOS
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4567
YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alejandro Tosti has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-ATOS
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 952
YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:09:39Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (the cut is determined after Round 2), and making the cut does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A