Pair #3954

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-ATOS

Will Alejandro Tosti lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 76501

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-ATOS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 952

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:09:39Z

Reasoning: If Alejandro Tosti leads after Round 1, he is in 1st place, which necessarily means he is in the top 10. The reverse does not hold — being top 10 in Round 1 does not mean he is the outright leader.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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