Pair #3952

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-ATOS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 952

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-ATOS

Will Alejandro Tosti win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 138201

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:09:39Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not logically require finishing top 10 in Round 1 (a player could start poorly and rally). Finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee winning the tournament. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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