Pair #3951

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-JSMI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 922

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-JSMI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2281

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:09:39Z

Reasoning: If Jordan L. Smith finishes top 5 overall, he necessarily finishes top 20 overall (top 5 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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