Pair #3950

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-JSMI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 283

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-JSMI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2281

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:09:39Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 20 overall (could miss the cut or fall significantly), and finishing top 20 overall does not require a top 5 Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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