Pair #3946

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-JSMI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 283

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-JSMI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1026

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:09:39Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in the overall tournament does not imply finishing top 5 in Round 1, and finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not imply finishing top 10 overall. These are independent measurements across different scopes.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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