Pair #3944

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-JSMI

Will Jordan L. Smith lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7233

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-JSMI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 283

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:09:19Z

Reasoning: If Jordan L. Smith leads after Round 1, he is necessarily in the top 5 (including ties) after Round 1 — being the leader means being at position 1. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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