Pair #3938

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-KYU

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Kevin Yu make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Kevin Yu
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 690

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.7600
Last: 0.3900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kevin Yu has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-KYU

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Kevin Yu finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Kevin Yu
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 473

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kevin Yu finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:09:19Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish. Finishing top 20 does imply making the cut, but making the cut does not imply top 20. The implication runs from top 20 to make cut, but neither ticker as labeled forces the other in the stated A→B or B→A without ambiguity — top 20 (B) implies made cut (A), so B is antecedent and A is consequent.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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