Pair #3937

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-KYU

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Kevin Yu make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Kevin Yu
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 690

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.7600
Last: 0.3900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kevin Yu has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-KYU

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Kevin Yu finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Kevin Yu
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 682

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kevin Yu finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:09:19Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 implies making the cut but the question is about the forward direction. Top 10 does imply making the cut, but making the cut does not imply top 10. However, the implied direction (top 10 → made cut) is not an option here as A is make cut and B is top 10. Top 10 finishing implies making the cut, so B implies A, but A does not imply B. Wait — re-checking: if B (top 10) resolves YES, then A (make cut) MUST be YES. So antecedent is B, consequent is A.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.7900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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