Pair #3931

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-THOG

Will Tom Hoge lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4860

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Hoge is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-THOG

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Tom Hoge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10879

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Hoge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:08:55Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish, and finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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