Pair #3920

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-KMIT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 525

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-KMIT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17316

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7500
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:08:38Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 20 overall (could miss the cut or fade). Finishing top 20 overall does not require having been top 5 in Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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