Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-KMIT
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 525
YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-KMIT
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17316
YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7500
Last: 0.2800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:08:38Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 20 overall (could miss the cut or fade). Finishing top 20 overall does not require having been top 5 in Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1800
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A