Pair #3918

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-KMIT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 525

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-KMIT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6482

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:08:38Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in the overall tournament is independent of Round 1 standing. A player can finish top 10 overall without being top 5 in R1, and can be top 5 in R1 without finishing top 10 overall. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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