Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-KMIT
Will Keith Mitchell lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 19748
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Keith Mitchell is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-KMIT
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 525
YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:08:38Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 means having the lowest (or tied lowest) score, which places the player at position 1 — necessarily within the top 5. The reverse is not true: finishing top 5 in R1 does not require being the outright leader.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A