Pair #3917

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-KMIT

Will Keith Mitchell lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 19748

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-KMIT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 525

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:08:38Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 means having the lowest (or tied lowest) score, which places the player at position 1 — necessarily within the top 5. The reverse is not true: finishing top 5 in R1 does not require being the outright leader.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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