Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-NDUN
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Nick Dunlap make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Nick Dunlap
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 401
YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Nick Dunlap has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-NDUN
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Nick Dunlap finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nick Dunlap
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 643
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Nick Dunlap finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:08:38Z
Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish — a player can make the cut and finish outside the top 20. Finishing top 20 does imply making the cut logically, but the top 20 market is the antecedent here only in that direction; however top 20 finishing does not require having 'made the cut' as a separate resolved event in all rule interpretations — actually it does since you must make the cut to finish in the tournament. But the question asks if top 20 implies make cut: yes. And make cut implies top 20: no. So top 20 → make cut holds.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A