Pair #3914

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-NDUN

Will Nick Dunlap lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Nick Dunlap
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 663

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nick Dunlap is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-NDUN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Nick Dunlap finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nick Dunlap
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 643

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nick Dunlap finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:08:38Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not necessitate finishing top 20 overall. Finishing top 20 overall does not require having led after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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