Pair #3904

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-WMOU

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will William Mouw finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 567

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If William Mouw finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-WMOU

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will William Mouw finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1164

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If William Mouw finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:08:14Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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