Pair #3902

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-WMOU

Will William Mouw lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 19049

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If William Mouw is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-WMOU

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will William Mouw finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 567

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If William Mouw finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:08:14Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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