Pair #390

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-SEA

Will Seattle Kraken win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Seattle Kraken
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 423798

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Seattle Kraken win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPACIFIC-26-SEA

Will Seattle Kraken win the NHL Pacific Division?

Series: KXNHLPACIFIC
Entity: Seattle Kraken
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 31429

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Seattle Kraken win the 2025-2026 NHL Pacific Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:08:25Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the Pacific Division (could qualify as a wild card). Winning the Pacific Division does not imply winning the Stanley Cup.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.40% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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