Pair #39

Antecedent (implies)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-JDRA

Will Jack Draper win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jack Draper
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1883

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jack Draper wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (implied)

KXMOMEN-26-DRA

Will Jack Draper win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Jack Draper
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 298

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jack Draper wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:51:19Z

Reasoning: The Miami Open is not a Grand Slam. Winning it does not imply winning a Grand Slam, and winning a Grand Slam does not imply winning the Miami Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.28% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 289
Hurdle yield: 4.17%
Excess yield: -2.90% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T09:52:09Z

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