Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-GWOO
Will Gary Woodland lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Gary Woodland
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 45324
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Gary Woodland is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-GWOO
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Gary Woodland finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Gary Woodland
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 308
YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Gary Woodland finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:07:57Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 means Gary Woodland has the best score, which necessarily places him in the top 10 after Round 1. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not mean he is the outright leader.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A