Pair #3891

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-GWOO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Gary Woodland finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Gary Woodland
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 308

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Gary Woodland finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-GWOO

Will Gary Woodland win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Gary Woodland
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2897711

YES ask: 0.4800
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.4800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Gary Woodland wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:07:57Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 (a player could have a poor Round 1 and still win), and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not mean winning the tournament. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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