Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-SEA
Will Seattle Kraken win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Seattle Kraken
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 423798
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Seattle Kraken win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLPRES-26-SEA
Will the Seattle Kraken win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?
Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Seattle Kraken
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 3336
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Seattle Kraken wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:08:25Z
Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the President's Trophy (best regular season record). A team can win the Cup without having the best record. Winning the President's Trophy does not imply winning the Stanley Cup.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-21.41%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0200
Days to maturity:
30
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-25.63%
BELOW HURDLE