Pair #3889

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-MHUG

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Mackenzie Hughes finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Mackenzie Hughes
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 739

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mackenzie Hughes finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MHUG

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Mackenzie Hughes finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Mackenzie Hughes
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1750

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mackenzie Hughes finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:07:57Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 10 (e.g., 7th) does not guarantee a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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