Pair #3880

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-RFOW

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Rickie Fowler make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5999

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.1400
Last: 0.8500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-TECHO26-RFOW

Will Rickie Fowler lead at the end of Round 2 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1834

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:07:34Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 implies making the cut (the leader after 36 holes has made the cut), but making the cut does not imply leading after Round 2. Wait — actually leading after Round 2 does imply making the cut. Let me reconsider: the R2 leader has completed 36 holes and is the leader, so they have made the cut. So R2LEAD → MAKECUT.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.1800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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