Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-DTHO
Will Davis Thompson lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Davis Thompson
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11196
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Davis Thompson is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-DTHO
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Davis Thompson finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Davis Thompson
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1075
YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Davis Thompson finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:07:34Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish (player could withdraw, miss cut, or fall down the leaderboard). Finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 1.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0900
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A