Pair #3874

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-DTHO

Will Davis Thompson lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Davis Thompson
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11196

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Thompson is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-DTHO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Davis Thompson finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Davis Thompson
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1075

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Thompson finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:07:34Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish (player could withdraw, miss cut, or fall down the leaderboard). Finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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