Pair #3873

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-DTHO

Will Davis Thompson lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Davis Thompson
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11196

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Thompson is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-DTHO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Davis Thompson finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Davis Thompson
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 564

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Thompson finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:07:15Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not necessitate a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 does not require having led after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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