Pair #3872

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-DTHO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Davis Thompson make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Davis Thompson
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 23668

YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.4600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Davis Thompson has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-DTHO

Will Davis Thompson lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Davis Thompson
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11196

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Davis Thompson is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:07:15Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could lead R1 but miss the cut after R2), and making the cut does not require having led after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.7500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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