Pair #3868

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-TOLE

Will Thorbjorn Olesen lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1870

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Thorbjorn Olesen is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-TOLE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Thorbjorn Olesen finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1905

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Thorbjorn Olesen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:07:15Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not necessitate a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 does not require having led after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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