Pair #3861

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-MTHO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 355

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.7700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Thorbjornsen has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MTHO

Will Michael Thorbjornsen lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 18115

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Thorbjornsen is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:06:57Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could lead R1 but play poorly in R2 and miss the cut). Making the cut does not imply leading after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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