Pair #386

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLEAST-26-PHI

Eastern Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Philadelphia Flyers
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 275968

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Philadelphia Flyers wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLMETROPOLITAN-26-PHI

Will Philadelphia Flyers win the NHL Metropolitan Division?

Series: KXNHLMETROPOLITAN
Entity: Philadelphia Flyers
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2645

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025-2026 NHL Metropolitan Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:08:25Z

Reasoning: Winning the Eastern Conference Finals does not require winning the Metropolitan Division (wild card path is possible). Winning the Metropolitan Division does not imply winning the ECF.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.40% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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