Pair #3859

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-SJAE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 776

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-SJAE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 30845

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:06:57Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not imply a top 20 overall finish (player could miss cut or finish poorly). A top 20 overall finish does not require a top 5 Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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