Pair #3857

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-SJAE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 776

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-SJAE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13800

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:06:57Z

Reasoning: Overall top 10 finish and Round 1 top 5 finish are independent. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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