Pair #3855

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-SJAE

Will Stephan Jaeger lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 28718

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-TECHO26-SJAE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 776

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:06:57Z

Reasoning: Leading at the end of Round 1 means finishing 1st in Round 1, which is necessarily within the top 5. The reverse does not hold (top 5 R1 does not mean leading).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue