Pair #3850

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-SKIM

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Seonghyeon Kim make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Seonghyeon Kim
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1332

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Seonghyeon Kim has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-SKIM

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Seonghyeon Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Seonghyeon Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 603

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Seonghyeon Kim finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:06:57Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish (could finish 21st or lower). Finishing top 20 does not strictly require making the cut in the traditional sense — top 20 finishers have necessarily made the cut, so top 20 does imply making the cut, but making the cut does not imply top 20. Wait — finishing top 20 DOES imply making the cut (you cannot finish top 20 without having made the cut). However, making the cut does NOT imply top 20. So there is a one-directional implication: KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-SKIM → KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-SKIM.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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