Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-AZEV
Will Alexander Zverev win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?
Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 31714
YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alexander Zverev wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXATPMATCH-26MAR26CERZVE-ZVE
Will Alexander Zverev win the Cerundolo vs Zverev : Quarterfinal match?
Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z
Volume: 37934
YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alexander Zverev wins the Cerundolo vs Zverev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:06:17Z
Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam (Australian Open, French Open, US Open, Wimbledon) has no logical connection to winning a Miami Open quarterfinal match. These are completely separate tournaments.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-30.83%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.2400
Days to maturity:
213
Hurdle yield:
4.28%
Excess yield:
-35.11%
BELOW HURDLE