Pair #3825

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR25TIASIN-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the Tiafoe vs Sinner : Quarterfinal match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-03-25T20:00:00Z
Volume: 259131

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins the Tiafoe vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR25TIASIN-1-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win set 1 in the Frances Tiafoe vs Jannik Sinner match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-03-25T20:00:00Z
Volume: 219

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins set 1 in the Frances Tiafoe vs Jannik Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Quarterfinal, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:06:00Z

Reasoning: Winning set 1 does not guarantee winning the match (can lose subsequent sets), and winning the match does not require winning set 1 (can lose set 1 and win the next two sets).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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