Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPMATCH-26MAR25TIASIN-TIA
Will Frances Tiafoe win the Tiafoe vs Sinner : Quarterfinal match?
Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-03-25T20:00:00Z
Volume: 259131
YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Frances Tiafoe wins the Tiafoe vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR25TIASIN-1-TIA
Will Frances Tiafoe win set 1 in the Frances Tiafoe vs Jannik Sinner match
Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-03-25T20:00:00Z
Volume: 219
YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Frances Tiafoe wins set 1 in the Frances Tiafoe vs Jannik Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Quarterfinal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:06:00Z
Reasoning: Winning set 1 does not guarantee winning the match (can lose subsequent sets), and winning the match does not require winning set 1 (can lose set 1 and win the next two sets).
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.4500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A