Pair #3824

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR25TIASIN-1-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win set 1 in the Frances Tiafoe vs Jannik Sinner match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-03-25T20:00:00Z
Volume: 219

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins set 1 in the Frances Tiafoe vs Jannik Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Quarterfinal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXFOMEN-26-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 1214820

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:06:00Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open and winning set 1 against Sinner in the Miami quarterfinal are unrelated events. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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