Pair #3823

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-FTIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 556

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR25TIASIN-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the Tiafoe vs Sinner : Quarterfinal match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-03-25T20:00:00Z
Volume: 259131

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins the Tiafoe vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:06:00Z

Reasoning: Winning the Miami Open quarterfinal against Sinner is not a Grand Slam match. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -10.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -15.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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