Pair #3822

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-FTIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 556

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR25TIASIN-1-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win set 1 in the Frances Tiafoe vs Jannik Sinner match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-03-25T20:00:00Z
Volume: 219

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins set 1 in the Frances Tiafoe vs Jannik Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Quarterfinal, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:06:00Z

Reasoning: The Miami Open quarterfinal set 1 result has no logical connection to winning a Grand Slam. Neither direction implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -50.08% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -54.36% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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