Pair #3821

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOMEN-26-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 1214820

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

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Rules

If Frances Tiafoe wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-FTIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 556

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Frances Tiafoe wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:06:00Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open necessarily means winning a Grand Slam in 2026. However, winning a Grand Slam does not imply winning the French Open specifically (could win another major).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -88.08% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -92.30% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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