Pair #3820

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR25TIASIN-1-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win set 1 in the Frances Tiafoe vs Jannik Sinner match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-03-25T20:00:00Z
Volume: 219

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins set 1 in the Frances Tiafoe vs Jannik Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Quarterfinal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMOMEN-26-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 28318

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:06:00Z

Reasoning: Winning the Miami Open does not require winning set 1 against Sinner specifically (Tiafoe could win in a later round or via different set scores). Winning set 1 against Sinner does not imply winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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