Pair #382

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-PHI

Will Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Philadelphia Flyers
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2196941

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLEAST-26-PHI

Eastern Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Philadelphia Flyers
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 275968

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Philadelphia Flyers wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:08:25Z

Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, Philadelphia must have won the Eastern Conference Finals first. So winning the Stanley Cup implies winning the Eastern Conference Finals. The reverse is not true — winning the ECF does not guarantee winning the Stanley Cup.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.06% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T09:43:40Z

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