Pair #3819

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-FTIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 556

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMOMEN-26-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 28318

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:06:00Z

Reasoning: The Miami Open is not a Grand Slam tournament. Winning Miami does not imply winning a Grand Slam, and winning a Grand Slam does not imply winning Miami.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -6.47% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -10.75% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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