Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-TKIM
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Tom Kim make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1301
YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.5900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tom Kim has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-TKIM
Will Tom Kim lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 35820
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tom Kim is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:05:41Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could collapse in R2 and miss the cut). Making the cut does not imply leading after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.5100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A