Pair #3812

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-TKIM

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Tom Kim make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1301

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-TKIM

Will Tom Kim lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 35820

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:05:41Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could collapse in R2 and miss the cut). Making the cut does not imply leading after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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