Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-JKEE
Will John Keefer lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: John Keefer
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 499
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If John Keefer is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-JKEE
Will John Keefer win the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: John Keefer
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 172094
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If John Keefer wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:05:41Z
Reasoning: Winning the Houston Open does not require leading after Round 1; a player can win without ever holding the outright lead after R1. And leading after R1 does not imply winning the tournament.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A